‘The Situation is Dire’: War on Iran Tightens India's Cooking-Gas Stock.

The repercussions of a conflict being fought nearly 1,864 miles away are now reaching India's households.

As US-Israeli strikes on Iran impede energy transports through the key maritime chokepoint, stocks of cooking gas are shrinking across India, pushing restaurants to reduce offerings, reduce operating times and in some cases cease operations entirely.

Social media is flooded by video clips showing crowds outside fuel suppliers across Indian cities and towns as worries over fuel supplies escalate. Commercial LPG users appear the worst hit: the sharpest squeeze is in commercial eateries.

"The situation is dire. LPG simply isn't available," says a representative of the National Restaurant Association of India.

Most food outlets run either on commercial LPG cylinders or piped gas, and the lack of supply are now being experienced across the country. "Many restaurants have ceased operations - some in the capital, many in the southern region. People are adopting traditional burners and electronic appliances to keep food preparation going."

Localized Effects

In a western metro, media reports say up to a fifth of hotels and restaurants are already fully or partly shut as commercial LPG supplies dry up. In the southern cities of Bengaluru and Chennai, some establishments say their gas stocks have depleted with minimal reserves. "We can only make coffee and nothing else - it is nothing less than pathetic. Commerce will take a hit," says a business operator in Bengaluru.

Restaurant managers are rushing to adjust. "Offering lists are shrinking, some are skipping midday meals and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are varying as supplies come and go. "Several establishments in Delhi were shut yesterday - a couple are back in business. It's a dynamic scenario."

Retailers report a surge in sales of electronic cooking appliances, with some saying they are running out of them.

Authority's View

Yet, the government maintains there is adequate supply.

India has more than a vast number of home fuel subscribers and spokespersons say cylinders are being reallocated to households as geopolitical strain from the war in the Gulf impact energy markets.

About 60% of India's LPG is brought in from overseas, and about nine out of ten of those consignments pass through the critical waterway, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now significantly disrupted by the war.

The petroleum ministry says that it instructed refineries to increase LPG output for home needs, raising domestic production by about a quarter. Non-domestic supply is being reserved for vital industries such as medical and academic centers, while distribution will be "equitable and clear".

"A degree of anxious stocking and hoarding has been caused by false reports. The normal delivery cycle for home fuel remains about 60 hours," says a senior official.

Spreading Anxiety

Now the anxiety is extending beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a extended procession of motorbikes outside a fuel station. "Concern is genuine," the caption reads.

According to reports from market experts, concerns about India's broader petroleum stocks may be overstated.

India imports 90% of its crude oil. Around half of its petroleum shipments - about millions of barrels a day - travel through the passage, largely from regional suppliers.

Even if crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz are blocked, the gap could be partly compensated for by higher imports of competitively priced oil from Russia, according to a refinery and oil markets analyst.

Based on maritime intelligence and industry information, increased Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, reducing India's effective deficit from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"A large quantity of Russian oil barrels are currently floating on ships in the Indian Ocean and, with only two major Asian economies as major buyers, those barrels remain a available backup," an analyst noted.

Cooking Gas: The Critical Weakness

The primary concern is LPG, experts note.

India consumes roughly one million barrels a day, but produces only a minority share domestically, importing the rest - most of it through the chokepoint.

Refineries can adjust processes to extract a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only increase domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country largely dependent on imports.

In short: "Petroleum shortage concerns can be somewhat alleviated through diversification. Fuel availability remains largely sufficient. Kitchen fuel stocks is the critical issue to monitor in the coming weeks."

What may be worsening the panic on the ground is not just scarcity but patchy deliveries - and the familiar spectre of stockpiling.

An industry representative states price gouging.

"Retailers are exploiting the situation - black-marketing cylinders and selling them at a high cost. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being stockpiled and sold to the highest bidder."

For now, India's petroleum stocks may be cushioned by global trade flows. But in homes across the country, the more immediate question is simple: how to get the next refill.