Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Halt Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry

Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.

Significant Obstacles in the Selection Process

A number of figures on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are anxious to avert any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine reportedly swung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially contest the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of insiders also expressed fears about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a strong campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.