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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple script. It commonly functions as a type of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who engineered the biggest improvement wins the prize. In reality, it sparks an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or just the biggest shock.

But the current competition is profoundly unique. The list of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference champions declining and recent underperformers ascending in unison. In an typical year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and entertaining season, he's facing five other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the projected vote could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent performance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of freelancing. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to conjure big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost every gamble – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the building with the kind of hype he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a normal year, he would be the clear-cut choice. But this isn't a typical campaign!

Where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained success. However he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the off-field aspects, which was not a certainty after his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason setback had the team wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has regressed since that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still