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During a lavish exclusive gathering hosted at Raffles hotel in central London recently, the great and the good of what is left of the Conservative party celebrated a major magazine's annual political honors.

With the magazine’s editorial line still just about support the Conservatives, even as they confront severe challenges posed by Reform, observers expected that much of the gossip during the upscale reception was about the security of the leader's position faced threats.

Party Tensions Emerge at Awards

One senior figure, a former leadership contender, couldn’t resist a dig from the stage at the naked ambition of his shadow cabinet colleague, Robert Jenrick – considered the main challenger.

“Am I after her job? Am I going to stick the knife between her shoulder blades to take over? Certainly not,” the experienced politician informed the amused crowd as he opened the evening's proceedings.

The runner-up from last year, has recently shifted sharply rightward to counter Reform's influence, did at least manage to chuckle. His own manoeuvres have been anything but subtle.

Countdown to Leadership Contest Begins

Months ago, one of the Tory leader’s disgruntled backbenchers set up a countdown clock on social media of the days left until Conservative rules allow rivals to mount a challenge. That clock reaches zero on Sunday.

From then on, the Tory leader’s critics will be able to submit letters a leadership election. The rules changed last year raising the required support, meaning 30% of the party’s 119 MPs must endorse, up from 15%, creating a higher bar for potential challengers.

Possible Challengers and Support

But could any putative rivals – Jenrick foremost among them – persuade the 36 MPs required to start the process? Party sources reference previous nomination totals during the last race: twenty-eight initially. “That forms the baseline,” according to insiders.

There is no shortage of Tory MPs willing to share dissatisfaction with the leader: her style, her political judgment, her public appeal. But, for the most part, they remain cautious regarding repeating a leadership overthrow so soon.

Breathing Space and Election Anxieties

Some Conservative MPs also believe her performance at the autumn party conference, announcing a policy to remove property tax for main residences, has bought her temporary relief.

“Although dissatisfied with the current leadership but we’ll be very careful regarding a change. Voters already perceive we fight like rats in a sack. We should avoid providing further confirmation,” an anonymous legislator stated.

That is not to say planning has ceased. “Kemi has until May. Upcoming council polls could be disastrous for us. No one will desire to take over before that and have to own the result. But afterwards, we must find a leader who can take us toward renewal,” one shadow cabinet minister said.

Survey Data and Public Perception

The polls already suggest Badenoch has made little progress among voters in the past twelve months with declining in terms of her personal ratings. At -22 points, she is less popular compared to her rival and Mel Stride (-21), according to Ipsos Mori.

Additional research also shows that Badenoch has convinced just one in eight voters she is ready for higher office. However, the picture is better with party supporters, with 54% saying she has done a good job in her role, with fewer than a third saying she should not lead the party into the next general election.

Future Scenarios and Internal Dynamics

Despite mixed feelings among base voters, there appears to be a consensus within parliamentary ranks that Badenoch will not be the one to lead the party into the next election.

The main division is whether it would better to replace her in May and have a chance at stopping Reform’s momentum – or delay until nearer to the general election when Farage might have imploded, and voters could be more willing to listen to the Tories again.

It is no secret that Jenrick thinks he is the right candidate. But his allies say he won't act immediately, and is among those advocating patience until May.

Other Candidates and Strategies

There is also a theory that a rescuer could emerge from less expected less prominent figures (one junior minister Claire Coutinho gets mentioned) or among newer MPs without strong associations to previous governments.

Another former candidate, is also cited as a potentially unifying figure, and has been keeping his powder dry. Supporters indicate he sees no better option but to carry on with Badenoch, as anybody taking over now would inherit an even more difficult situation.

Should a race begin, some would certainly urging Cleverly to stand, and he may be persuadable another attempt. A small group of centrist MPs are organizing a rearguard action to prevent Jenrick from being crowned from winning.

Conservative Shift and Electoral Considerations

An influential insider cautioned that momentum favors right-wingers both inside and outside the party, mentioning names like Jenrick, Neil O’Brien, Katie Lam and Nick Timothy. “Opportunity exists for Cleverly given his experience and the relationship with members, and some want to stop Robert at any costs.”

“Many are considering are on the need for a pact or coalition with Reform at some stage. During the votes on social issues generated significant calls for expulsion of dissenters and Reform’s private messaging is ‘you’ve got some Lib Dems sympathizers must go. That tips things the challenger slightly.”

However, another added: “Jenrick winning is not a foregone conclusion. We could have a strong competition between Jenrick and another – Cleverly, Stride. The assumption that conservatives always wins the membership may not hold true.”